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EIA預計2025年后煤炭和核電站發電將趨于平穩
字號:[    ] 發布時間:2020-02-10 11:06:41 來源:中國石化新聞網

  據美國能源信息署2月7日報道,盡管預計到2050年天然氣和可再生能源發電量將增長,但美國能源信息署(EIA)在《2020年能源展望》(AEO2020)參考案例中預測,到2050年,煤炭和核電站將共同提供超過25%的發電量。

  在AEO2020參考案例中,煤炭發電占比從2019年的24%下降到2050年的13%,核電發電占比預計從2019年的20%下降到2050年的12%。在高油氣供應的情況下,天然氣供應增加導致天然氣價格下降。在這種情況下,天然氣發電量繼續增加,并將替代煤炭和核能發電,到2050年,煤炭和核能分別占總發電量的9%和7%;同樣,在石油和天然氣供應不足的情況下,天然氣價格上漲將導致2050年煤炭和核能的份額分別下降到16%和14%。

  煤炭和核能發電的最新發展趨勢源于天然氣價格較低、電力需求增長有限、國家級清潔能源倡議以及可再生能源競爭加劇。根據EIA對發電廠運營商的調查和幾家公司的公告,一些火力發電廠將退役,這些發電廠的總容量高達33GW。

  EIA預計,隨著天然氣價格上漲和燃煤電廠的競爭力不斷增強,2025-2050年,只有效率更高的燃煤電廠才會繼續運營。EIA預計,根據可負擔清潔能源(ACE)規則,低效率燃煤電廠將在2025年前退役。ACE 規則是2019年6月由美國環保局制定的,用于指導美國各州制定改善燃煤電廠的熱耗率(即熱效率),以減少二氧化碳(CO2)排放。

  在AEO2020參考案例中,美國核電總發電量從2019年的98GW降至2050年的79GW。與EIA對火力電廠的預測類似,大部分核電退役預計發生在2020年至2025年之間。在參考案例中,有近24GW的核電容量退役,其中7.5GW已經公布,另外還將有16GW將到2050年退役,以應對競爭激烈的市場條件。

  賈麗 摘譯自 美國能源信息署

  原文如下:

  EIA projects generation from coal and nuclear power plants will plateau after 2025

  Despite projected growth in natural gas and renewable energy use to generate electricity through 2050, in the Annual Energy Outlook 2020 (AEO2020) Reference case, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projects that coal and nuclear power plants will collectively provide more than 25% of generation through 2050.

  In the AEO2020 Reference case, the share of electricity generated from coal decreases from 24% in 2019 to 13% in 2050, and the share of electricity generated from nuclear power is projected to fall from 20% in 2019 to 12% in 2050. In the High Oil and Gas Supply case, increased supply of natural gas results in lower natural gas prices. In this scenario, natural gas-fired electricity generation continues to increase, largely at the expense of coal and nuclear, which fall to 9% and 7% of total electricity generation in 2050, respectively. Similarly, in the Low Oil and Gas supply case, higher natural gas prices result in coal’s share falling to 16% and nuclear’s share falling to 14% in 2050.

  Recent trends for electricity generated from coal and nuclear are the result of historically low natural gas prices, limited growth in electricity demand, state-level clean energy initiatives, and increasing competition from renewable energy. Several coal-fired power plants, totaling 33 gigawatts (GW) of capacity, have already announced their intention to retire, according to EIA’s survey of power plant operators and the companies’ retirement announcements.

  After 2025, EIA projects that only the most efficient coal-fired plants will remain operating through 2050 as natural gas prices rise and coal power plants remain competitive. EIA assumes that less efficient coal-fired plants will retire by 2025 to comply with the Affordable Clean Energy (ACE) rule. This rule, finalized by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) in June 2019 as a replacement for the Clean Power Plan, directs states to develop plans for improving the heat rates (i.e., thermal efficiencies) of their coal-fired power plants to reduce carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  In the AEO2020 Reference case, total U.S. nuclear power generating capacity decreases from 98 GW in 2019 to 79 GW in 2050. Similar to EIA’s projections for coal retirements, most of the projected nuclear power retirements occur between 2020 and 2025. In the Reference case, nearly 24 GW of nuclear capacity retires: 7.5 GW have already been announced, and EIA’s Reference case projects another 16 GW will retire through 2050 in response to competitive market conditions.

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